Now Everyone Try and Act Surprised…

The first Quebec NDP MP has gone running for the hills!

71 year old first time NDP MP Lise St-Denis has announced while flanked by Bob Rae and Denis Coderre that she was leaving the NDP and joining the Liberal Party of Canada

Her explanations were colourful:

"I wasn't named a critic and I was sat in the back row because of my last name, which starts with S, so I had lots of time to look and listen to everyone,"

Asked about voters in her riding and whether they voted for the NDP or for her, St-Denis said simply "They voted for Jack Layton, but Jack Layton is dead."

Thanks to CBC for the quotes found here

Let’s be realistic;

The NDP walked into the 2011 election polling at by some estimation (Nanos April 8th) around 13% and they finished with 30% completing one of the most impressive and entertaining rises in political history while the Bloc and Liberals enjoyed one of the most tragic falls in political history.

With all that said;
The “love in” wasn’t going to last forever.

While many on the Liberal side of the fence will argue that Ms. St-Denis is 71 and this is about a genuine desire to join a renewed party and has nothing to do with her seeking re-election at the age of 75, the reality is that we just spent the last two weeks fighting over if Irwin Cotler who is also 71 years old was a fair target to assume would retire before the end of his mandate, so its not that unreasonable to assume she may very well be seeking re-election and even if not I would be interested to see where she lands afterward in terms of position.

The NDP by some estimation has fallen around 15% from their peak within Quebec, and the Bloc seems to be rapidly filling that vacuum, there just isn’t a lot of positive news if you are an NDP MP in Quebec.

We knew sooner or later one of them was going to cross, it wasn’t a matter of if but simply when, the NDP rose too quickly and was bound to come down a little bit within Quebec sooner or later, I assumed the first MP to jump would have come a lot later maybe after the NDP lost its lead in Quebec however while the timing may be a surprise the fact that it happened shouldn’t be.

For the Conservatives;
This is simply Christmas coming a few weeks late.

The NDP nominated a no-one to go toe to toe with a potential Liberal Party rockstar in the Toronto-Danforth by-election and now a New Democrat has crossed the floor to join the Liberals (What I suspect will not be the last)

I expect blows to come between both opposition parties for the next few weeks, and a battle of public relations fought in the media over who is truly the party to “stop” Harper.

With the loss of Ms. St-Denis and the Toronto-Danforth By-Election coming it could very much cause some panic within the ranks of the NDP which could very well shake a few more MP’s loose.

However it’s all gravy for the CPC.

A civil war on the left is exactly what is needed for the CPC to enjoy the same sort of unfiltered ease of electability the Liberals enjoyed when the right was turned in on itself from 1993 – 2004.

Who is talking about the Conservative Senators who just further stacked the Senate in the Conservatives favor for years to come?

No one.

The NDP and Liberals are going to be clubbing each other over the head for weeks over this floor cross, and then I suspect for the month after over the Toronto-Danforth by-election.

I have to wonder how big the smile on Stephen Harper’s face was this morning when he heard the news?