I am glutton for outragous-ness.
From time to time I get a rise out of reading the CBC comments section within their news articles.
As I am sure most readers know;
Our friend NDP MP Pat Martin dropped the "F-Bomb" on a twitter poster pertaining to the Government
He stated:
“This is a f—ing disgrace … closure again. And on the Budget! There’s not a democracy in the world that would tolerate this jackboot s—,”
This is from a Member of Parliament who was elected in 1997, and has been collected a paycheque from the taxpayer for roughly 14 years.
I am not offended by swearing, I do so daily.
However I once again find this situation as the Canadian media not holding the NDP to the same level of scrutiny as the Conservatives or Liberals.
Had John MacKay or Peter Van Loan made similar comments there would be cries from the NDP that they should resign or publicly apologize.
However with the NDP the most common response I get is "Its Pat Martin, what do you expect, he is a spirited guy"
Stockwell Day was a "spirited guy" and I don't think we would have given him the same "meh" reaction had he dropped an F bomb in regards to the Liberals passing legislation in the same manner when they had a majority government.
It appears that the public doesn't quite take the NDP seriously yet;
They still get the treatment as though they are the same 3rd opposition party with 19 seats as they were in 2004.
However if the voting public and the media don't hold them to the same standard, and don't take them as seriously as the Tories and Liberals,
Then I have to ask;
Why should the Conservatives?
Friday, November 18, 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Why the Liberal Party of Canada doesn’t get it
If I were asked why the Liberal Party of Canada is in the hole they are in now; I think the best word I could use to explain it would be “pride”.
The Liberal Party of Canada never really adjusted to the new political realities of 2003 when the Conservative Party of Canada was born, and nearly six years after being ousted from power they still seem to be struggling to adjust.
Sheila Copps in an interview with CBC stated that she felt that Bob Rae should be allowed to run for leader of the Federal Liberals.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/07/pol-liberals-sheila-copps.html
Even though Rae’s leadership index scores are lower then Michael Ignatieff’s.
Source: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2011-07-LeadershipE.pdf
We all remember Iggy right? You know, the guy who made John Turner look like a political genius in comparison.
Basically we find ourselves in a situation where Legacy Liberals are still pushing for Rae even though this guy is less popular then the guy they just ran out of the party on a rail for not being popular.
There are times where watching the Liberal Party “high ups” talk politics seems more like a Monty Python parody then it does reality. I cannot wrap my head around folks who seem to be so smart, can be so out of touch with any sort of political reality.
However despite all the missteps and mistakes; the Liberals seem to only be surviving on the mistakes of the NDP.
I look at a guy like Thomas Mulcair as a potential NDP leader who could suck the air out of whatever is left of the Liberal base; however I find some New Democrats referring him as a “Grapefruit” basically Orange on the Outside, Red on the Inside.
Let’s set aside the fact that nearly any new support the NDP found themselves with outside of Quebec since 2004 has come almost exclusively from former Liberal supporters, and now those folks who propelled them to respectability are somehow “bad”.
However if the NDP bungles their leadership race; it would open the door for the Liberals to potentially win back at least in part some of their original powerbase in Ontario, yet even though that potential exists there is an internal interest in making Bob Rae the leader of the party; perhaps the most unpopular man in Ontario politics.
I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the conservation that takes place at Liberal HQ that somehow lead themselves to believe that this is a good idea.
Or for that matter why waiting till two years before the next election is a good idea to select a new leader rather then doing it now and giving this party some direction.
This logic that it will give the Liberals more time to fundraise so they can fight off the attack ads defining their leader for the Tories is interesting; however the Tories could stop fundraising today, and I suspect they would still be in better shape then the Liberals in 2013.
My solution would be to elect a leader who already has definition;
However that seems too simple.
The Liberal Party of Canada never really adjusted to the new political realities of 2003 when the Conservative Party of Canada was born, and nearly six years after being ousted from power they still seem to be struggling to adjust.
Sheila Copps in an interview with CBC stated that she felt that Bob Rae should be allowed to run for leader of the Federal Liberals.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/07/pol-liberals-sheila-copps.html
Even though Rae’s leadership index scores are lower then Michael Ignatieff’s.
Source: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2011-07-LeadershipE.pdf
We all remember Iggy right? You know, the guy who made John Turner look like a political genius in comparison.
Basically we find ourselves in a situation where Legacy Liberals are still pushing for Rae even though this guy is less popular then the guy they just ran out of the party on a rail for not being popular.
There are times where watching the Liberal Party “high ups” talk politics seems more like a Monty Python parody then it does reality. I cannot wrap my head around folks who seem to be so smart, can be so out of touch with any sort of political reality.
However despite all the missteps and mistakes; the Liberals seem to only be surviving on the mistakes of the NDP.
I look at a guy like Thomas Mulcair as a potential NDP leader who could suck the air out of whatever is left of the Liberal base; however I find some New Democrats referring him as a “Grapefruit” basically Orange on the Outside, Red on the Inside.
Let’s set aside the fact that nearly any new support the NDP found themselves with outside of Quebec since 2004 has come almost exclusively from former Liberal supporters, and now those folks who propelled them to respectability are somehow “bad”.
However if the NDP bungles their leadership race; it would open the door for the Liberals to potentially win back at least in part some of their original powerbase in Ontario, yet even though that potential exists there is an internal interest in making Bob Rae the leader of the party; perhaps the most unpopular man in Ontario politics.
I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the conservation that takes place at Liberal HQ that somehow lead themselves to believe that this is a good idea.
Or for that matter why waiting till two years before the next election is a good idea to select a new leader rather then doing it now and giving this party some direction.
This logic that it will give the Liberals more time to fundraise so they can fight off the attack ads defining their leader for the Tories is interesting; however the Tories could stop fundraising today, and I suspect they would still be in better shape then the Liberals in 2013.
My solution would be to elect a leader who already has definition;
However that seems too simple.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Will Obama Avoid the Need to Electioneer with the Jobs Bill?
Since President Obama made the announcement that some sort of action would be taken on job creation in September and the slight details being leaked every day or so by the democrats I have wondered something.
President Obama’s approval rating is in the toilet, its hard to argue that and even most Democrats have simply resorted to shrugging and saying something to the effect of “the election is a long way off”
Getting a second term as President is not rocket science, only 12 Presidents who served out their first term and ran for a second term failed to do so.
In the case of the Democrats and President Obama the opportunity these had was rare. When the President was sworn in; he was sworn in along side a super majority in the House and the Senate.
The Republicans didn’t need to be consulted to pass legislation let alone need to vote for it, it was as close to an absolute majority as can be granted within the American system of government.
The opportunity to show the American people an uncompromised Democratic vision of what the United States can become without any obstruction or compromise.
Being able to run for re-election on your record is the surest way to victory, if your record isn’t great is to rely on rhetoric and dogma in a hope to punch the other guy out.
My fear now is that this jobs bill is nothing more then a means to attempt to “shame” Republicans.
A big spending, no impact, no rationale, plan which the Democrats will table solely for the purpose of the Republicans voting against it.
More bad legislation and political chess playing at the expense of the American people.
A move solely to allow for a colorful attack ad claiming the Republicans are hindering job creation, more wasted time, more faux action, no results.
I am not giving the Republicans a free pass in terms of “political gaming” however I am concerned that the loss that was painted on the Democrats by the media over the debt ceiling will be avenged by the party brass with this potentially faux legislation.
I hope I am wrong, I hope it’s more then a paper bill tabled to be voted against for the purpose of 2012, but I am not hopeful.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Plight of the Liberal Party
For every increasing loss the Liberals suffered in every election from 2004 till 2011 there seems to be a recurring theme.
There is always an excuse that points any blame away from the fact that Liberal voters actually showed up on Election Day and voted for the Tories.
“Liberal voters just didn’t show up on election day”
In 2008, I simply had to give it to them. They just looked so sad and it was hard to argue with voter turn out being around 58.8%.
Yet when we get to 2011 the common cries I seem to hear are:
“Liberal voters didn’t show up or the NDP split our vote”
With voter turn out in 2011 higher then 2004, 2008, and even the pre-adjusted 2000 numbers its hard to argue that folks who have gone to the ballot box ever so loyally on behalf of the Liberal Party of Canada were not out on Election Day 2011.
Those Jean Chretien loyalists were out and voting, the question is who did they vote for?
The easiest answer for the Liberals to swallow is that they “loaned” their vote to the NDP, and at first glace the increase in support for the NDP in many ridings the Liberal routinely dominated in the past could hold some water.
However upon closer inspection, that appears to not be the case.
Mississauga/Brampton was perhaps the last Suburban Stronghold the Liberals had left walking into 2011 the Liberals had secured 7/8 of those ridings in 2008, and the one that they had lost they lost by a few hundred votes.
In 2011 all eight ridings went Conservative,
The trouble for the “NDP split the vote argument” is that in many of the these ridings the Conservatives won by margins higher then even the Liberals enjoyed during their routine domination of these ridings.
Mississauga-Erindale was retained with 29,793 votes;
This was the highest amount of support ever given to a winning candidate in that riding.
In 2004 Carolyn Parrish won it with 28,246 votes and that was the previous high.
Mississauga South that had been represented by Paul Szabo since 1993 was won by Stella Ambler who secured 22,991 votes and won by more then 4000 votes over Szabo .
To put this into perspective;
Ambler won the riding with more votes then Szabo had retained the riding in any of the 2008, 2006, 2000, 1997, and 1993 elections respectively (Szabo secured 24,628 votes in 2004)
Brampton West saw Kyle Seeback elected with the most votes in that ridings history, same for Brampton-Springdale.
In Bramalea-Gore-Malton the Liberals found themselves in third place behind the Tories and NDP; even though Former MP Gurbax Singh Malhi had been in power since 1993.
This doesn’t appear to be an issue of voters staying home, or the New Democrats “stealing” Liberal votes, but simply a situation where regions overwhelmingly decided to reject the Liberals.
Even looking into Toronto Proper this is a trend that seems to repeat.
Joe Volpe had been in power since 1988 this is a riding that had been Liberal since its creation in 1979 and it went Tory by more then 4000 votes.
It appears that former Liberal voters gave up on waiting for the “old” party to return.
Holding off on a leadership race till 2013 certainly doesn’t help the Liberals in their attempt to “re-brand” themselves.
Leader X will have less time, money, and incumbent MP’s then either Dion or Ignatieff did when they attempted to defeat the Conservatives.
It’s clear the Liberals need to rebuild a powerbase;
The question simply becomes given their plight? Where do they even begin?
There is always an excuse that points any blame away from the fact that Liberal voters actually showed up on Election Day and voted for the Tories.
“Liberal voters just didn’t show up on election day”
In 2008, I simply had to give it to them. They just looked so sad and it was hard to argue with voter turn out being around 58.8%.
Yet when we get to 2011 the common cries I seem to hear are:
“Liberal voters didn’t show up or the NDP split our vote”
With voter turn out in 2011 higher then 2004, 2008, and even the pre-adjusted 2000 numbers its hard to argue that folks who have gone to the ballot box ever so loyally on behalf of the Liberal Party of Canada were not out on Election Day 2011.
Those Jean Chretien loyalists were out and voting, the question is who did they vote for?
The easiest answer for the Liberals to swallow is that they “loaned” their vote to the NDP, and at first glace the increase in support for the NDP in many ridings the Liberal routinely dominated in the past could hold some water.
However upon closer inspection, that appears to not be the case.
Mississauga/Brampton was perhaps the last Suburban Stronghold the Liberals had left walking into 2011 the Liberals had secured 7/8 of those ridings in 2008, and the one that they had lost they lost by a few hundred votes.
In 2011 all eight ridings went Conservative,
The trouble for the “NDP split the vote argument” is that in many of the these ridings the Conservatives won by margins higher then even the Liberals enjoyed during their routine domination of these ridings.
Mississauga-Erindale was retained with 29,793 votes;
This was the highest amount of support ever given to a winning candidate in that riding.
In 2004 Carolyn Parrish won it with 28,246 votes and that was the previous high.
Mississauga South that had been represented by Paul Szabo since 1993 was won by Stella Ambler who secured 22,991 votes and won by more then 4000 votes over Szabo .
To put this into perspective;
Ambler won the riding with more votes then Szabo had retained the riding in any of the 2008, 2006, 2000, 1997, and 1993 elections respectively (Szabo secured 24,628 votes in 2004)
Brampton West saw Kyle Seeback elected with the most votes in that ridings history, same for Brampton-Springdale.
In Bramalea-Gore-Malton the Liberals found themselves in third place behind the Tories and NDP; even though Former MP Gurbax Singh Malhi had been in power since 1993.
This doesn’t appear to be an issue of voters staying home, or the New Democrats “stealing” Liberal votes, but simply a situation where regions overwhelmingly decided to reject the Liberals.
Even looking into Toronto Proper this is a trend that seems to repeat.
Joe Volpe had been in power since 1988 this is a riding that had been Liberal since its creation in 1979 and it went Tory by more then 4000 votes.
It appears that former Liberal voters gave up on waiting for the “old” party to return.
Holding off on a leadership race till 2013 certainly doesn’t help the Liberals in their attempt to “re-brand” themselves.
Leader X will have less time, money, and incumbent MP’s then either Dion or Ignatieff did when they attempted to defeat the Conservatives.
It’s clear the Liberals need to rebuild a powerbase;
The question simply becomes given their plight? Where do they even begin?
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Will the NDP end up like the Social Credit Party
As I sat back and look over the political landscape that has been born from this election I have to ask myself if history will repeat itself once again.
If political leaders have learnt anything within Canada’s political history it’s simply that balancing the needs of Quebec and the needs of Canada are normally something that results in the destruction of your political legacy.
While pointing at Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives are the easy example, they put themselves in the position to destroy themselves by wading into the Constitution, something the NDP as the official opposition will have little opportunity to do.
However as I look at Jack Layton and his caucus of 44 non-Quebec MP’s and then I watch Thomas Mulcair soak up airtime like he needs to live promoting the 59 MP Quebec caucus, I can’t help but make the comparison…
Is Jack Layton simply the 21st century version of R.N. Thompson, and Mulcair simply his Réal Caouette?
While it’s easy to bask in the success of the NDP’s victories on May 2nd, it also results in us ignoring a few interesting facts,
The NDP caucus was made up of 35 non Quebec MP’s when the election writ was dropped, and on the day of the election the NDP found itself with a non Quebec caucus of 44 an increase of 9 MP’s.
Six of whom all came from Toronto.
What this means is that when we back out Quebec and the 416 we have a three seat increase across the balance of Canada.
Quebec delivered the overwhelming majority of growth at the expense of largely the BQ but the Liberals and Conservatives as well.
However the NDP was largely ineffective against the Conservatives across the country where they need to grow if they want to govern.
The Quebec NDP delivered, the rest of Canada did not.
Much as was the case during the 1963 election.
The Social Credit Party was lead by RN Thompson whose seat was in Red Deer, they found themselves winning 24 seats with 20 of them elected in Quebec.
Within Six Months the Ralliement Créditiste was born and Thompson was left to watch over a handful of Social Credit MP’s while Real Caouette led the balance.
I have to wonder how long Quebec NDP MP’s will take their marching orders from a leader in Toronto.
The Quebec caucus of the NDP could break away from the New Democrats and still be the official opposition expect would not need to compromise in order to placate the balance of NDP MP’s scattered across the country.
If the Bloc finds itself with officially party status, how long before a piece of legislation is tabled that divides the NDP?
It’s going to be an interesting few years.
If political leaders have learnt anything within Canada’s political history it’s simply that balancing the needs of Quebec and the needs of Canada are normally something that results in the destruction of your political legacy.
While pointing at Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives are the easy example, they put themselves in the position to destroy themselves by wading into the Constitution, something the NDP as the official opposition will have little opportunity to do.
However as I look at Jack Layton and his caucus of 44 non-Quebec MP’s and then I watch Thomas Mulcair soak up airtime like he needs to live promoting the 59 MP Quebec caucus, I can’t help but make the comparison…
Is Jack Layton simply the 21st century version of R.N. Thompson, and Mulcair simply his Réal Caouette?
While it’s easy to bask in the success of the NDP’s victories on May 2nd, it also results in us ignoring a few interesting facts,
The NDP caucus was made up of 35 non Quebec MP’s when the election writ was dropped, and on the day of the election the NDP found itself with a non Quebec caucus of 44 an increase of 9 MP’s.
Six of whom all came from Toronto.
What this means is that when we back out Quebec and the 416 we have a three seat increase across the balance of Canada.
Quebec delivered the overwhelming majority of growth at the expense of largely the BQ but the Liberals and Conservatives as well.
However the NDP was largely ineffective against the Conservatives across the country where they need to grow if they want to govern.
The Quebec NDP delivered, the rest of Canada did not.
Much as was the case during the 1963 election.
The Social Credit Party was lead by RN Thompson whose seat was in Red Deer, they found themselves winning 24 seats with 20 of them elected in Quebec.
Within Six Months the Ralliement Créditiste was born and Thompson was left to watch over a handful of Social Credit MP’s while Real Caouette led the balance.
I have to wonder how long Quebec NDP MP’s will take their marching orders from a leader in Toronto.
The Quebec caucus of the NDP could break away from the New Democrats and still be the official opposition expect would not need to compromise in order to placate the balance of NDP MP’s scattered across the country.
If the Bloc finds itself with officially party status, how long before a piece of legislation is tabled that divides the NDP?
It’s going to be an interesting few years.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Canada needs its own “Bob Rae”
As I watch the support of Jack Layton and the NDP rise in Ontario I am reminded that kids born in 1993 are now of voting age, I had a conversation about Bob Rae with a 22 year old the other day and he simply scratched his head and said “Isn’t he the Liberal guy”.
I can’t blame him; he never experienced Rae Day’s or the “Social Contract” he was six years old when Rae was voted out of power and the NDP Provincially became essentially a fringe party for nearly the next two decades.
As I watch the Liberals and the Conservative’s attack Layton for his policies and his platform in the midst of the rising wave and I am reminded about 1990.
Bob Rae is a good politician; I have no issue conceding that.
The problem in 1990 was that the NDP platform was an opposition platform, it appeared that David Peterson may find himself in a minority government, and much like 1985 the NDP prepared itself to prop up a Liberal government while shaking the Liberals down for a few treats for its supporters.
It was not a platform meant for governance; nor were an overwhelming amount of NDP candidates who ran in ridings the NDP never won prior and never won since expecting to become MPP’s.
We found ourselves in a situation with a leader who was never expecting to be Premier of Ontario, and a caucus full of people who were simply not expecting to be MPP’s on September 7th.
As I watch Jack Layton rise in the polls I am not as fearful as many of the other Tories or even Liberals or Bloc supporters.
If ever there was an election to be won by the NDP it’s this one.
The platform is 28 pages, many of those pages contain pictures of Jack Layton, and we have already started seeing them acknowledge that some of the promises they made that they may actually be expected to keep were not realistic.
An NDP victory is bad for Canada today; but good for Canada moving forward.
A prepared NDP with a charismatic leader like Jack Layton could fortify the left in a way in which we have never seen in this nation. However we are about to send 40+ NDP candidates from Quebec to Ottawa who didn’t think they had a snowballs chance of winning when this writ was dropped and that is ultimately where the downfall will be, just as it was with Rae.
The Conservative’s biggest folly by miles was continuing to attack Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals when it was clear they were toast.
The last week of this election should have been about a choice;
Bob Rae’s Ontario Vs. Stephen Harper’s Canada.
A man unprepared to govern Vs. that of one who has.
The devil you don’t know Vs. the one you do.
However instead we sit back and watch the NDP creep up in Ontario as a decades worth of voters have no memory of the NDP’s record in Ontario,
We watch history repeat.
I think Jack Layton in the context of a minority government leader is a good thing;
I think a Toronto politician on the national stage harms the left far more then it helps it.
David Miller salted the earth for Joe Pantalone
Bob Rae salted the earth for Howard Hampton
Now perhaps its time for Jack Layton to do the same.
I want Canada to have leader that I can point to for the next 20 years like I have been able to with Rae in Ontario.
Jack Layton appears to be granting me that wish.
I can’t blame him; he never experienced Rae Day’s or the “Social Contract” he was six years old when Rae was voted out of power and the NDP Provincially became essentially a fringe party for nearly the next two decades.
As I watch the Liberals and the Conservative’s attack Layton for his policies and his platform in the midst of the rising wave and I am reminded about 1990.
Bob Rae is a good politician; I have no issue conceding that.
The problem in 1990 was that the NDP platform was an opposition platform, it appeared that David Peterson may find himself in a minority government, and much like 1985 the NDP prepared itself to prop up a Liberal government while shaking the Liberals down for a few treats for its supporters.
It was not a platform meant for governance; nor were an overwhelming amount of NDP candidates who ran in ridings the NDP never won prior and never won since expecting to become MPP’s.
We found ourselves in a situation with a leader who was never expecting to be Premier of Ontario, and a caucus full of people who were simply not expecting to be MPP’s on September 7th.
As I watch Jack Layton rise in the polls I am not as fearful as many of the other Tories or even Liberals or Bloc supporters.
If ever there was an election to be won by the NDP it’s this one.
The platform is 28 pages, many of those pages contain pictures of Jack Layton, and we have already started seeing them acknowledge that some of the promises they made that they may actually be expected to keep were not realistic.
An NDP victory is bad for Canada today; but good for Canada moving forward.
A prepared NDP with a charismatic leader like Jack Layton could fortify the left in a way in which we have never seen in this nation. However we are about to send 40+ NDP candidates from Quebec to Ottawa who didn’t think they had a snowballs chance of winning when this writ was dropped and that is ultimately where the downfall will be, just as it was with Rae.
The Conservative’s biggest folly by miles was continuing to attack Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals when it was clear they were toast.
The last week of this election should have been about a choice;
Bob Rae’s Ontario Vs. Stephen Harper’s Canada.
A man unprepared to govern Vs. that of one who has.
The devil you don’t know Vs. the one you do.
However instead we sit back and watch the NDP creep up in Ontario as a decades worth of voters have no memory of the NDP’s record in Ontario,
We watch history repeat.
I think Jack Layton in the context of a minority government leader is a good thing;
I think a Toronto politician on the national stage harms the left far more then it helps it.
David Miller salted the earth for Joe Pantalone
Bob Rae salted the earth for Howard Hampton
Now perhaps its time for Jack Layton to do the same.
I want Canada to have leader that I can point to for the next 20 years like I have been able to with Rae in Ontario.
Jack Layton appears to be granting me that wish.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Don’t you love the smell of an election in the morning?
Its budget day;
I find myself clicking refresh on any number of different news and political websites hoping to get some new information that will let us know if we will be heading to the polls in May or not.
People keep asking if I think there will be an election, and had you asked me last week I would have chuckled and said not unless the opposition wants to give the Conservatives a majority.
Today I still feel that even at 38% or so, if the double digit lead the Conservatives hold over the Liberals in Ontario is correct that will be enough to generate the seats required for the Tories to pull a 1997 and find themselves with a thin majority.
The question is why would the opposition want to allow this?
The answer I think is pretty simple;
If you are the BQ, there is a very real possibility that your leader who is the only real face of the party will be moving to Provincial pastures within the next 12-18 months and you are better off contesting an election with him, then having a bitter leadership race which may very well result in a leader Quebeckers are generally apathetic to.
Duceppe is a known commodity good for a 45 seat pop.
The balance of the Commons is when it becomes a bit more hazy.
For the Liberals, as I have said for the last two years this is a party that needs four years in opposition to rebuild themselves. They don’t have the leader, support, will, or money to be in this constant state of election campaigning that a minority government provides.
This is a party that’s has problems that do not simply span from who the leader is, but simply a party that lacks direction or any identity. If you took the logos off the 2004, 2006, and 2008 Liberal Platforms someone with no knowledge of Canadian politics would be hard-pressed to assume they came from the same party.
They need direction and they need an end to infighting.
This is something that will not get done in the context of a minority government.
However I think there is just too much pride at stake for that to ever happen.
Yet we find ourselves with the Liberals polling somewhere between 23-27% nationally and a fairly consistent double digit gap between them and the Conservatives in Ontario.
Voting down this budget, or taking down the government on whatever ethical grounds they feel they may be going to the polls over seems more a leap of pride then of any real political strategy.
The Liberals needs to make fairly substantial gains to be anywhere near a position to consider forming a government.
The idea of walking into an election hoping that Canadians will value correct use of letterhead over the recovery of the economy is a stretch, yet its why we seem to find ourselves potentially at the polls.
I think the Liberals have just gone too far this time, its gone past the point of “Mr. Harper your time is up” and the Liberals almost have to go to the polls because abstaining from this budget will kill what’s left of their creditability.
Now we come to the NDP.
A party that wanted four very low cost concessions for their potential support.
A far cry from the billions of dollars they demanded from Paul Martin’s Liberals in 2005.
The Conservatives have countered with agreeing to two of the least left of center and low cost requests.
I have no idea how to even begin to gauge NDP support.
Polling has them at a support level that may cost them 15-20 seats then the next poll has them adding a couple.
However can the NDP really pass a budget with Corporate Tax Cuts?
I just don’t see it.
What I find all the more puzzling is that it appears that Thomas Mulcair seems to be the one rattling the saber to go to an election (at least by some online reports which we can very well take with a grain of salt)
Mulcair is perhaps the second most known commodity within the party,
And while he may very well be doing wonders within the party, I find it highly unlikely that he will be able to retain Outremont with Martin Cauchon running for the Liberals.
It’s not a slight at Mulcair, it’s simply a political reality of Quebec.
Outremont is a Liberal Stronghold, Mulcair was a Liberal Cabinet Minister in the Provincial Liberal Government, however he has hardly beat anyone of note in either election he has won, and now he faces a real honest to goodness and very personally popular Liberal.
I can see why the NDP may vote down the budget, but I just don’t see why many of them would be smiling while they do.
I guess we will find out shortly.
I find myself clicking refresh on any number of different news and political websites hoping to get some new information that will let us know if we will be heading to the polls in May or not.
People keep asking if I think there will be an election, and had you asked me last week I would have chuckled and said not unless the opposition wants to give the Conservatives a majority.
Today I still feel that even at 38% or so, if the double digit lead the Conservatives hold over the Liberals in Ontario is correct that will be enough to generate the seats required for the Tories to pull a 1997 and find themselves with a thin majority.
The question is why would the opposition want to allow this?
The answer I think is pretty simple;
If you are the BQ, there is a very real possibility that your leader who is the only real face of the party will be moving to Provincial pastures within the next 12-18 months and you are better off contesting an election with him, then having a bitter leadership race which may very well result in a leader Quebeckers are generally apathetic to.
Duceppe is a known commodity good for a 45 seat pop.
The balance of the Commons is when it becomes a bit more hazy.
For the Liberals, as I have said for the last two years this is a party that needs four years in opposition to rebuild themselves. They don’t have the leader, support, will, or money to be in this constant state of election campaigning that a minority government provides.
This is a party that’s has problems that do not simply span from who the leader is, but simply a party that lacks direction or any identity. If you took the logos off the 2004, 2006, and 2008 Liberal Platforms someone with no knowledge of Canadian politics would be hard-pressed to assume they came from the same party.
They need direction and they need an end to infighting.
This is something that will not get done in the context of a minority government.
However I think there is just too much pride at stake for that to ever happen.
Yet we find ourselves with the Liberals polling somewhere between 23-27% nationally and a fairly consistent double digit gap between them and the Conservatives in Ontario.
Voting down this budget, or taking down the government on whatever ethical grounds they feel they may be going to the polls over seems more a leap of pride then of any real political strategy.
The Liberals needs to make fairly substantial gains to be anywhere near a position to consider forming a government.
The idea of walking into an election hoping that Canadians will value correct use of letterhead over the recovery of the economy is a stretch, yet its why we seem to find ourselves potentially at the polls.
I think the Liberals have just gone too far this time, its gone past the point of “Mr. Harper your time is up” and the Liberals almost have to go to the polls because abstaining from this budget will kill what’s left of their creditability.
Now we come to the NDP.
A party that wanted four very low cost concessions for their potential support.
A far cry from the billions of dollars they demanded from Paul Martin’s Liberals in 2005.
The Conservatives have countered with agreeing to two of the least left of center and low cost requests.
I have no idea how to even begin to gauge NDP support.
Polling has them at a support level that may cost them 15-20 seats then the next poll has them adding a couple.
However can the NDP really pass a budget with Corporate Tax Cuts?
I just don’t see it.
What I find all the more puzzling is that it appears that Thomas Mulcair seems to be the one rattling the saber to go to an election (at least by some online reports which we can very well take with a grain of salt)
Mulcair is perhaps the second most known commodity within the party,
And while he may very well be doing wonders within the party, I find it highly unlikely that he will be able to retain Outremont with Martin Cauchon running for the Liberals.
It’s not a slight at Mulcair, it’s simply a political reality of Quebec.
Outremont is a Liberal Stronghold, Mulcair was a Liberal Cabinet Minister in the Provincial Liberal Government, however he has hardly beat anyone of note in either election he has won, and now he faces a real honest to goodness and very personally popular Liberal.
I can see why the NDP may vote down the budget, but I just don’t see why many of them would be smiling while they do.
I guess we will find out shortly.
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