Will the NDP end up like the Social Credit Party

As I sat back and look over the political landscape that has been born from this election I have to ask myself if history will repeat itself once again.

If political leaders have learnt anything within Canada’s political history it’s simply that balancing the needs of Quebec and the needs of Canada are normally something that results in the destruction of your political legacy.

While pointing at Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives are the easy example, they put themselves in the position to destroy themselves by wading into the Constitution, something the NDP as the official opposition will have little opportunity to do.

However as I look at Jack Layton and his caucus of 44 non-Quebec MP’s and then I watch Thomas Mulcair soak up airtime like he needs to live promoting the 59 MP Quebec caucus, I can’t help but make the comparison…

Is Jack Layton simply the 21st century version of R.N. Thompson, and Mulcair simply his Réal Caouette?

While it’s easy to bask in the success of the NDP’s victories on May 2nd, it also results in us ignoring a few interesting facts,

The NDP caucus was made up of 35 non Quebec MP’s when the election writ was dropped, and on the day of the election the NDP found itself with a non Quebec caucus of 44 an increase of 9 MP’s.

Six of whom all came from Toronto.

What this means is that when we back out Quebec and the 416 we have a three seat increase across the balance of Canada.

Quebec delivered the overwhelming majority of growth at the expense of largely the BQ but the Liberals and Conservatives as well.

However the NDP was largely ineffective against the Conservatives across the country where they need to grow if they want to govern.

The Quebec NDP delivered, the rest of Canada did not.

Much as was the case during the 1963 election.

The Social Credit Party was lead by RN Thompson whose seat was in Red Deer, they found themselves winning 24 seats with 20 of them elected in Quebec.

Within Six Months the Ralliement Créditiste was born and Thompson was left to watch over a handful of Social Credit MP’s while Real Caouette led the balance.
I have to wonder how long Quebec NDP MP’s will take their marching orders from a leader in Toronto.
The Quebec caucus of the NDP could break away from the New Democrats and still be the official opposition expect would not need to compromise in order to placate the balance of NDP MP’s scattered across the country.
If the Bloc finds itself with officially party status, how long before a piece of legislation is tabled that divides the NDP?
It’s going to be an interesting few years.