The Political Theater that is Ontario

What bothered me most about Michael Ignatieff was his attempt to show us just how smart he was. The dissolve of Parliament prior to the 2011 Federal Election is a primary example of that. 

It wasn’t enough to simply have a motion of non-confidence it had to be something historic, a government falling to a contempt of Parliament motion, the Liberals using their leverage allowing the Speaker of the House to set the table and then creating a situation where Ignatieff could do something that had never occurred in the history of Parliamentary Democracy. 

This was followed by Ignatieff making another kind of history on election night, but I digress. 

Ontario has rapidly entered into the same sort of theater that had me rolling my eyes federally a few years ago. 

Contempt of Parliament has once again reared its head, and the word “Prorogue” which the media had seemingly never heard of in 2008 is now commonplace and “within the right of the Premier”.  (Amazing how the folks in the media have become Constitutional Scholars all of a sudden)

However I bore of the opposition’s tact. 

Hudak wrote a stern letter, and Horwath seems to be thumbing her nose at the Premier. 

All this conversation about accountability and investigation and scandal. 

The reality is that no proper investigation can be conducted from the opposition bench, you can hold a “political trial” and win in the court of public opinion but the reality is without the strength that being on the government side of the aisle brings with it this becomes nothing more the bad political theater. 

McGuinty has Prorogued Parliament hoping that the memories of Ontario voters are short and will fixate on something else, whereas the opposition is yet to use the term I demand to hear

“Non-Confidence”

This is very simple, Ontario voters’ wants answers the only way they will get answers is if the opposition in some form takes control of government. 

This is one of those rare times where the PC’s and NDPers have a common goal. 

Hudak and Horwath need to share a stage and agree on a singular matter.

That for the former Premier and his government to be held accountable there needs to be an election where the voters of Ontario decide how they want to move forward. 

Regardless of the outcome of the next few weeks there needs to be a clear understanding from both opposition leaders that the 40^th Legislative Assembly of Ontario is over, and that the Premier has left them no alternative but to vote no confidence in this government as its clear by the Premier stepping down he also lacks the confidence in his own government. 

There must be a clear line in the sand drawn. 

However both the PC’s and NDP are posturing and attempting to lap up support when they should be doing everything they can to get back to work and the only way to do that and investigate the government is with the strength an election will bring. 

Anything short of an election is conversation and a waste of time and energy.

Dalton McGuinty: The Single Greatest Threat to a 2015 Harper Majority

While Tories and New Democrats rejoice at the resignation of Dalton McGuinty, I look at it in an entirely different light. 

While we can all argue McGuinty’s current level of unpopularity the reality is that voters in Ontario have the memories of goldfish and in a Federal Liberal capacity he wouldn’t need to face the electorate till October 2015 anyway. 

Even at his lowest as Premier he still secured basically 38% of the popular vote in 2011, and that is higher than the Federal Liberals have secured in Ontario since Paul Martin in 2006 (39%).

He is also still popular in the 905 belt, which is the same region that gave Harper his majority in 2011. 

The beauty of Harper’s victories has been in its simplicity. 

If you look at polling from January 23^rd 2006 till now the one thing you see very very rarely (4 times in nearly seven years IIRC) is the Conservative Party of Canada sub 30% nationally. 

As Paul Martin left, and the federal Liberals made a mad dash to the left it has resulted in 30% of Canadians with no real alternative, Harper is the option on the center-right. 

Which really means that all Harper needs to do in order to win is secure 7 – 10% of the remaining 70% and he can govern as long as he pleases. As no one else federally has expressed any interest in that 30%. 

2011 brought another dynamic to the game, Quebec ceased to be politically necessary and with the passage of the Fair Representation Act became less so. 

The NDP could have secured all 75 seats in Quebec and the Tories would still have a majority. 

As long as the Liberals/NDP/Bloc/GPC all whacked each other over the heads to secure the 70% of the overall vote (including Quebec) the CPC was free to kick back and campaign almost exclusively to Ontario and its social liberal/fiscal conservative suburban voter. 

A Justin Trudeau led Liberal Party of Canada does nothing to change that dynamic; Quebec becomes the battleground as the BQ attempts to win back its ridings, the NDP look to maintain their ridings, and the Liberals look to add soft support and gain ridings. 

Basically it leads to a 2015 battle for 78 irrelevant seats garnering an epic political battle of which the winner goes the silver medal and the “privilege” of being able to sit as the official opposition in a Harper majority, as Harper sits back and campaigns to the 10%. 

It is as I have stated for months the easiest path of rebuild for the Liberals.

The problem with Quebec is their voters are manic who then become apathetic the second you do something they are not in favor of, and watching Thomas Mulcair beg to retain Quebec support at the risk of alienating every other NDP voter in Canada makes me wonder if the Liberals want to build their stronghold on sand, or in Quebec’s case quicksand. 

Dalton McGuinty changes that dynamic. 

He has won three straight elections in a Province that Blue Provincially from 1945 – 1985 and again from 1995 to 2003. 

I would imagine he instantly sucks the air out of Peel Region for the Tories; and at least allows for the Liberals to make significant gains in all 905 seats, and with 15 seats being added in Ontario and many of them likely in that region. That is bad news for the CPC as that’s the region that went blue in 2011 resulting in a CPC majority. 

This forces Harper to all of a sudden care about Quebec again, and caring about Quebec has been the undoing of far too many politicians in Canada. 

The other issue with McGuinty is that he is already defined in the minds of most Ontario voters, we know he is a lying, deceptive, scumbag but one who was re-elected twice when we already knew he was a lying, deceptive, scumbag.

This makes “defining” him a little more complicated in Ontario, and definition has been the single greatest asset the Tories and their war chest has provided against Liberal Party leaders. 

While I certainly think he can be beaten; it makes the path to a 2015 victory a lot more complicated than running against nearly anyone else who has been rumoured for the job.

Now Everyone Try and Act Surprised…

The first Quebec NDP MP has gone running for the hills!

71 year old first time NDP MP Lise St-Denis has announced while flanked by Bob Rae and Denis Coderre that she was leaving the NDP and joining the Liberal Party of Canada

Her explanations were colourful:

"I wasn't named a critic and I was sat in the back row because of my last name, which starts with S, so I had lots of time to look and listen to everyone,"

Asked about voters in her riding and whether they voted for the NDP or for her, St-Denis said simply "They voted for Jack Layton, but Jack Layton is dead."

Thanks to CBC for the quotes found here

Let’s be realistic;

The NDP walked into the 2011 election polling at by some estimation (Nanos April 8th) around 13% and they finished with 30% completing one of the most impressive and entertaining rises in political history while the Bloc and Liberals enjoyed one of the most tragic falls in political history.

With all that said;
The “love in” wasn’t going to last forever.

While many on the Liberal side of the fence will argue that Ms. St-Denis is 71 and this is about a genuine desire to join a renewed party and has nothing to do with her seeking re-election at the age of 75, the reality is that we just spent the last two weeks fighting over if Irwin Cotler who is also 71 years old was a fair target to assume would retire before the end of his mandate, so its not that unreasonable to assume she may very well be seeking re-election and even if not I would be interested to see where she lands afterward in terms of position.

The NDP by some estimation has fallen around 15% from their peak within Quebec, and the Bloc seems to be rapidly filling that vacuum, there just isn’t a lot of positive news if you are an NDP MP in Quebec.

We knew sooner or later one of them was going to cross, it wasn’t a matter of if but simply when, the NDP rose too quickly and was bound to come down a little bit within Quebec sooner or later, I assumed the first MP to jump would have come a lot later maybe after the NDP lost its lead in Quebec however while the timing may be a surprise the fact that it happened shouldn’t be.

For the Conservatives;
This is simply Christmas coming a few weeks late.

The NDP nominated a no-one to go toe to toe with a potential Liberal Party rockstar in the Toronto-Danforth by-election and now a New Democrat has crossed the floor to join the Liberals (What I suspect will not be the last)

I expect blows to come between both opposition parties for the next few weeks, and a battle of public relations fought in the media over who is truly the party to “stop” Harper.

With the loss of Ms. St-Denis and the Toronto-Danforth By-Election coming it could very much cause some panic within the ranks of the NDP which could very well shake a few more MP’s loose.

However it’s all gravy for the CPC.

A civil war on the left is exactly what is needed for the CPC to enjoy the same sort of unfiltered ease of electability the Liberals enjoyed when the right was turned in on itself from 1993 – 2004.

Who is talking about the Conservative Senators who just further stacked the Senate in the Conservatives favor for years to come?

No one.

The NDP and Liberals are going to be clubbing each other over the head for weeks over this floor cross, and then I suspect for the month after over the Toronto-Danforth by-election.

I have to wonder how big the smile on Stephen Harper’s face was this morning when he heard the news?