While Tories and New Democrats rejoice at the resignation of
Dalton McGuinty, I look at it in an entirely different light.
While we can all argue McGuinty’s current level of
unpopularity the reality is that voters in Ontario have the memories of
goldfish and in a Federal Liberal capacity he wouldn’t need to face the
electorate till October 2015 anyway.
Even at his lowest as Premier he still secured basically 38%
of the popular vote in 2011, and that is higher than the Federal Liberals have
secured in Ontario since Paul Martin in 2006 (39%).
He is also still popular in the 905 belt, which is the same
region that gave Harper his majority in 2011.
The beauty of Harper’s victories has been in its simplicity.
If you look at polling from January 23rd 2006
till now the one thing you see very very rarely (4 times in nearly seven years
IIRC) is the Conservative Party of Canada sub 30% nationally.
As Paul Martin left, and the federal Liberals made a mad
dash to the left it has resulted in 30% of Canadians with no real alternative,
Harper is the option on the center-right.
Which really means that all Harper needs to do in order to
win is secure 7 – 10% of the remaining 70% and he can govern as long as he
pleases. As no one else federally has expressed any interest in that 30%.
2011 brought another dynamic to the game, Quebec ceased to
be politically necessary and with the passage of the Fair Representation Act
became less so.
The NDP could have secured all 75 seats in Quebec and the
Tories would still have a majority.
As long as the Liberals/NDP/Bloc/GPC all whacked each other
over the heads to secure the 70% of the overall vote (including Quebec) the CPC
was free to kick back and campaign almost exclusively to Ontario and its social
liberal/fiscal conservative suburban voter.
A Justin Trudeau led Liberal Party of Canada does nothing to
change that dynamic; Quebec becomes the battleground as the BQ attempts to win
back its ridings, the NDP look to maintain their ridings, and the Liberals look
to add soft support and gain ridings.
Basically it leads to a 2015 battle for 78 irrelevant seats garnering
an epic political battle of which the winner goes the silver medal and the “privilege”
of being able to sit as the official opposition in a Harper majority, as Harper
sits back and campaigns to the 10%.
It is as I have stated for months the easiest path of
rebuild for the Liberals.
The problem with Quebec is their voters are manic who then
become apathetic the second you do something they are not in favor of, and
watching Thomas Mulcair beg to retain Quebec support at the risk of alienating
every other NDP voter in Canada makes me wonder if the Liberals want to build
their stronghold on sand, or in Quebec’s case quicksand.
Dalton McGuinty changes that dynamic.
He has won three straight elections in a Province that Blue
Provincially from 1945 – 1985 and again from 1995 to 2003.
I would imagine he instantly sucks the air out of Peel Region
for the Tories; and at least allows for the Liberals to make significant gains
in all 905 seats, and with 15 seats being added in Ontario and many of them
likely in that region. That is bad news for the CPC as that’s the region that
went blue in 2011 resulting in a CPC majority.
This forces Harper to all of a sudden care about Quebec
again, and caring about Quebec has been the undoing of far too many politicians
in Canada.
The other issue with McGuinty is that he is already defined
in the minds of most Ontario voters, we know he is a lying, deceptive, scumbag
but one who was re-elected twice when we already knew he was a lying,
deceptive, scumbag.
This makes “defining” him a little more complicated in
Ontario, and definition has been the single greatest asset the Tories and their
war chest has provided against Liberal Party leaders.
While I certainly think he can be beaten; it makes the path
to a 2015 victory a lot more complicated than running against nearly anyone
else who has been rumoured for the job.
All very interesting, except for the fact that no Premier has ever managed a switch to PM since confederation days; Charles Tupper was premier of NS prior to union.
ReplyDeleteMcGuinty would be a laughing stock outside the province, many already cannot understand his success in Ont. His method of retiring before being driven from office would also require a lot of explaining.
Finally the sheer size of the green energy fiasco is still largely hidden from public view. Before 2015 the bills for the wind follies, litigation from Samsung, drastically increased energy rates, electricity shortages, all will be very apparent.Toronto citizens care very little about the rural environment, but they are aware of energy costs. The end of the green boondoggle may be the real reason for his retirement.
I think the last thing that Ontarions would want is to be tagged as the ones who voted in Dalton McGuinty as PM after what he has done to their province. I would think that their voting him into office as Premier is hard enough for them to deal with. (and something the rest of Canada has never been able to figure out.)
ReplyDeleteVoting for him at the Federal level would be a distinction they could never live down and the rest of Canada would just see McGuinty as damaged goods, much the same as Bob Rae. As Martin says, very interesting, just not very plausible in my opinion.
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Justin may be an empty suit, but that is the suit the Liberal Party wants on the front bench.
ReplyDeleteThat alone will keep Dalton out of contention (and good riddance too!)
I think that a lot of the reaction to McGuinty is emotional rather then factual.
ReplyDeleteEven the most recent damning Fourms poll which had the Ontario Liberals at 20% still had them taking 23 seats the bulk of which were in the 905 belt.
The guy is without question one of the most polarizing figures in Ontario political history but he won two majorities and was a seat away from a third.
McGuinty is the only potential leadership candidate who has the infrastructure on the ground and a huge fundraising base already in place in the most politically important Province in terms of seats.
He also doesn't face the voters till 2015, and while the scandal du jour is damning today there will be something else in three years.
The last thing the CPC needs is a groundwar in Ontario, especially against a guy who even at 20% Provincially is still as popular as Harper was in the 905's on election day 2011, and those 905 seats are the reason we have a majority today.
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