Why the Liberal Party of Canada doesn’t get it

If I were asked why the Liberal Party of Canada is in the hole they are in now; I think the best word I could use to explain it would be “pride”.

The Liberal Party of Canada never really adjusted to the new political realities of 2003 when the Conservative Party of Canada was born, and nearly six years after being ousted from power they still seem to be struggling to adjust.

Sheila Copps in an interview with CBC stated that she felt that Bob Rae should be allowed to run for leader of the Federal Liberals.

Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/09/07/pol-liberals-sheila-copps.html

Even though Rae’s leadership index scores are lower then Michael Ignatieff’s.

Source: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2011-07-LeadershipE.pdf

We all remember Iggy right? You know, the guy who made John Turner look like a political genius in comparison.

Basically we find ourselves in a situation where Legacy Liberals are still pushing for Rae even though this guy is less popular then the guy they just ran out of the party on a rail for not being popular.

There are times where watching the Liberal Party “high ups” talk politics seems more like a Monty Python parody then it does reality. I cannot wrap my head around folks who seem to be so smart, can be so out of touch with any sort of political reality.

However despite all the missteps and mistakes; the Liberals seem to only be surviving on the mistakes of the NDP.

I look at a guy like Thomas Mulcair as a potential NDP leader who could suck the air out of whatever is left of the Liberal base; however I find some New Democrats referring him as a “Grapefruit” basically Orange on the Outside, Red on the Inside.

Let’s set aside the fact that nearly any new support the NDP found themselves with outside of Quebec since 2004 has come almost exclusively from former Liberal supporters, and now those folks who propelled them to respectability are somehow “bad”.

However if the NDP bungles their leadership race; it would open the door for the Liberals to potentially win back at least in part some of their original powerbase in Ontario, yet even though that potential exists there is an internal interest in making Bob Rae the leader of the party; perhaps the most unpopular man in Ontario politics.

I can’t even begin to wrap my head around the conservation that takes place at Liberal HQ that somehow lead themselves to believe that this is a good idea.

Or for that matter why waiting till two years before the next election is a good idea to select a new leader rather then doing it now and giving this party some direction.

This logic that it will give the Liberals more time to fundraise so they can fight off the attack ads defining their leader for the Tories is interesting; however the Tories could stop fundraising today, and I suspect they would still be in better shape then the Liberals in 2013.

My solution would be to elect a leader who already has definition;
However that seems too simple.

Will the NDP end up like the Social Credit Party

As I sat back and look over the political landscape that has been born from this election I have to ask myself if history will repeat itself once again.

If political leaders have learnt anything within Canada’s political history it’s simply that balancing the needs of Quebec and the needs of Canada are normally something that results in the destruction of your political legacy.

While pointing at Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives are the easy example, they put themselves in the position to destroy themselves by wading into the Constitution, something the NDP as the official opposition will have little opportunity to do.

However as I look at Jack Layton and his caucus of 44 non-Quebec MP’s and then I watch Thomas Mulcair soak up airtime like he needs to live promoting the 59 MP Quebec caucus, I can’t help but make the comparison…

Is Jack Layton simply the 21st century version of R.N. Thompson, and Mulcair simply his Réal Caouette?

While it’s easy to bask in the success of the NDP’s victories on May 2nd, it also results in us ignoring a few interesting facts,

The NDP caucus was made up of 35 non Quebec MP’s when the election writ was dropped, and on the day of the election the NDP found itself with a non Quebec caucus of 44 an increase of 9 MP’s.

Six of whom all came from Toronto.

What this means is that when we back out Quebec and the 416 we have a three seat increase across the balance of Canada.

Quebec delivered the overwhelming majority of growth at the expense of largely the BQ but the Liberals and Conservatives as well.

However the NDP was largely ineffective against the Conservatives across the country where they need to grow if they want to govern.

The Quebec NDP delivered, the rest of Canada did not.

Much as was the case during the 1963 election.

The Social Credit Party was lead by RN Thompson whose seat was in Red Deer, they found themselves winning 24 seats with 20 of them elected in Quebec.

Within Six Months the Ralliement Créditiste was born and Thompson was left to watch over a handful of Social Credit MP’s while Real Caouette led the balance.
I have to wonder how long Quebec NDP MP’s will take their marching orders from a leader in Toronto.
The Quebec caucus of the NDP could break away from the New Democrats and still be the official opposition expect would not need to compromise in order to placate the balance of NDP MP’s scattered across the country.
If the Bloc finds itself with officially party status, how long before a piece of legislation is tabled that divides the NDP?
It’s going to be an interesting few years.